Where Auto Insurance Rates Are Falling in 2026

For most of 2023 and 2024, the auto insurance story was a depressingly consistent one: rates went up, and they went up fast. According to Insurify's open dataset, the national average annual premium for full-coverage insurance climbed from roughly $1,580 in early 2021 to a peak of $2,391 in mid-2024 — a 51% increase in just over three years.

Something has changed. As of June 2026, the national average sits at $2,237 — about 6% below its 2024 peak. And in some states, the drops have been much larger than that.

The biggest 12-month declines

We pulled the open dataset and ranked all 40 states for which Insurify publishes monthly average premiums. Fully 30 of the 40 are cheaper than they were a year ago, and several have seen double-digit year-over-year decreases:

Iowa — premiums fell from $1,631 in June 2025 to $1,331 in June 2026, a drop of about 18%.
Arkansas — down from $2,190 to $1,829 over the same window, a 17% decline. Arkansas is now roughly 27% below its late-2024 peak above $2,500.
New Mexico — down from $1,899 to $1,632, a 14% decline.
Idaho — down from $1,514 to $1,305, a 14% decline, and roughly 20% below its late-2024 peak near $1,630.
Wisconsin — down from $1,693 to $1,516, a 10% decline.

Two more worth noting: California, one of the headline decliners of 2025, is down a further 7% year over year and now sits at $2,395 — about 15% below its late-2024 peak of $2,816. And Wyoming, down another 8% to $1,118, remains the cheapest state in the dataset.

One state we deliberately left off the list: New York technically shows the largest year-over-year decline of all — but the June 2025 baseline falls inside a stretch of anomalously elevated readings in our source data during 2025, which wildly exaggerates the drop. Measured against readings from just before that stretch, New York's decline looks closer to 10% than to the headline figure, so we'd treat its exact magnitude with caution.

What's behind the drops

A handful of forces are pulling premiums down at the same time:

Reduced loss-cost inflation. The medical costs and vehicle parts prices that drove much of the 2022–2024 spike have moderated. With insurer costs growing more slowly, the regulatory case for further rate hikes has weakened.

Catch-up rate filings. During 2022–2024, regulators in many states approved rate increases that effectively front-loaded several years of inflation into 12 months. Insurers that over-priced are now refiling lower base rates to win back share.

Customer churn. Two consecutive years of large premium increases pushed an unusual number of drivers to shop their coverage. Carriers losing market share to nimble competitors have responded with promotional pricing.

Catastrophe-tied volatility. States like California and Idaho, which saw premium spikes correlated with wildfire-driven loss assumptions, are seeing insurers revise those catastrophe-driven assumptions as newer rate filings work through the regulatory pipeline and reprice the risk.

States where rates are still climbing

Not every state is enjoying the reversal. Ten of the 40 states still post year-over-year increases, led by:

Connecticut — climbed from $2,438 in June 2025 to $2,652 in June 2026, +9%, and is now at the highest level in its recorded history.
North Carolina — up from $1,266 to $1,373, +8%, though it remains one of the cheapest states in the country.
Kentucky — up from $2,164 to $2,302, +6%.
Florida — up from $2,694 to $2,835, +5%, reversing some of the relief Florida drivers saw in late 2024 and early 2025.

New York, which sat in this section in earlier versions of this analysis, has dropped out: its readings have been declining steadily since the anomalous stretch in our source data during 2025, though — as noted above — we'd hedge on exactly how large its true decline is.

What this means for drivers

If you renewed in 2024 or early 2025 and haven't shopped your policy since, you are very likely overpaying. Rate movement of this size at the state-average level means individual drivers — especially those with clean records, prior coverage, and average-or-better credit — should be able to find materially lower premiums by switching carriers.

The mechanics are simple:

Get fresh quotes from at least 3 carriers, including at least one direct writer (Geico, Progressive) and at least one captive agent (State Farm, Allstate). Their rate-filing schedules differ, so the spread between them is often where the savings hide.
Time it with your renewal. Most states require carriers to notify you 30–45 days before renewal — that's your shopping window.
Don't just price-match. Carriers will almost always discount to keep a profitable customer; even if you stay, the call costs you nothing.

Try our Rate Impact Calculator to estimate how factors specific to your situation — credit, location, vehicle, prior coverage — push your number above or below the state average.

Premier Auto Savings is not affiliated with Insurify. Data reproduced under their public attribution policy.